I don’t think there is any doubt that Apple is working on a smaller version of the iPad. They’d be crazy to not be looking at options, even if they never release anything the public can line up to buy.
The evidence that the front runner in the smaller iPad race has a 7.85-inch display also seems very strong. For example, this post from Joel Bernstein (who apparently went to school with my wife) on Cast Irony is a clear explanation of why this particular size makes so much sense.
However, what seals the deal for this screen size in my mind is not specifically that the touch targets would be the same size as they are on an iPhone, but that it opens the door to using existing iPhone screen technology cut into larger rectangles. I think I first heard this idea from John Gruber either on an episode of the Talk Show, or possibly here:
Here’s the logic behind such a display. Displays aren’t manufactured at their finished size; rather, they’re made on big sheets, and then cut to size. I believe the iPad Mini (or whatever it’s going to be called) uses the same display as the iPhone 3GS. So instead of cutting these sheets into 3.5-inch 480 × 320 displays for the iPhone 3GS, they’ll cut them into 7.85-inch 1024 × 768 displays for the smaller iPad. Same exact display technology, though — display technology that Apple has been producing at scale ever since the original iPhone five years ago. These are displays Apple knows they can produce efficiently and in enormous quantities. All they have to do is cut them into bigger pieces.
In general this has been an argument in favor of the iPad mini being introduced as a non-retina device. The thing surprising me right now is that there isn’t more speculation on the possibility that the iPad mini could be introduced with a retina display.
Isn’t it a shame that Apple never figured out how to make a retina display at that same 3.5-inch size? If only they had some device that was currently using a 3.5-inch 960 x 640 display so that they could cut the same display stock into 7.85-inch 2048 x 1536 displays for the smaller iPad…
Of course, if they did have such a device, it would be even better if they had sold more of them than of all previous models of the device combined.
Seriously though, I understand that the screen technology from the original iPhone, iPhone 3G, and iPhone 3GS has to be cheaper to produce than the screen technology in the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S. However, Apple has been making lots of retina iPhone displays. At this point the numbers suggest that they’ve produced roughly three times as many retina iPhone displays as they have non-retina iPhone displays:
- Sales of all iPhones prior to the iPhone 4 = N
- So sales of the iPhone 4 would be roughly N
- And sales of the iPhone 4S would be roughly 2N
- So total sales of retina iPhones = 3N
It could be that Apple is planning to shut down production of the iPhone 3GS and is looking for something to do with the ‘leftover’ production lines. It could also be that Apple will shut down production of the iPhone 3GS and be glad to reduce the number of types of displays they need to produce.
Maybe the iPad mini will never be released. Maybe it will be released, and it will start with a non-retina display. I’m just saying, Apple knows how to make a retina display for a 7.85 inch iPad.